How Do We Know What We Don’t Know?

mulberryman

There is a nagging question for me that I wonder what other people think about?  What certifiable coins are out there waiting to be “discovered” by heirs or estate sellers and put on the market in TPG holders? I often read that some people think the nice (valuable) coins are already certified and many already sent sent to CAC (sticker or not). But is that really the case?  I know that a common worry when buying rare or condition census pieces that a “hoard” will be discovered and prices will flop. Hoards just seem to show up periodically (Randall, Redford, Wells Fargo, Treasure ships, Montana, and others). I don’t think all the choice coins have been graded yet. I have a fair number of coins (purchases from the past few decades) that warrant TPG but I haven’t got around to sending them in (I’m too lazy I guess). Bound to be others including heirs who also haven’t sent in their coins. Not to mention coins hidden in safe deposit boxes, European/Asian bank vaults, walls, gardens, attics, etc. So, I’m just wondering how we know what’s really out there? I don’t know how accurate early mint production figures and TPG population reports are. I know that a common answer to lower populations with higher mintages is that many coins were melted for their precious metal content when worth more that the face value, like pre 1834 gold as an example. Unless the mint melted it, how do we really know what was melted from what was saved and hidden or put away somewhere?  I’m not sure we ever will until it’s too late? (BTW, I’m not referring to ultra rarities where exact numbers are known). Someone out there probably has the answer but it’s not me.

BillJones

When I was a dealer, there were a lot of incentives to get really nice raw coins certified because you almost always made more money on them than if you bought already certified coins. The financial incentives are out there.

Yes, there are some great coins that have not been certified, but their numbers have been greatly thinned over the years.

totallyoriginal

This is a good question and I often try to reason about the reduction of the unknown. Depending on the series that you're illustrating for your examples, it may simply take more time to "discover" what is not yet known. However, I think for some series, we will never truly know everything that we would like to know.

Your point about the melting of gold coins has been researched to some extent based on the documents and records that are, or were, available in "official" archives. We can then create a set of facts for what can be argued as "what we now know" based on the evidence, but I think we may overlook the possibility that verification of the historical data for true facts has not been satisfied. How many 1927-D Double Eagle coins were melted? How do we know?

As another example, I think the facts about the 1933 Double Eagle coins are slightly more truthful, but I really don't know. I do believe that I have a need to know and it is sad for me to realize that I will never know.

Realone

What all the u.s. gold and silver coins that is still overseas in Europe. And the many hoards big and small that are surely going to be discovered here someday as well as many collections under the radar as well as those of collectors who don't believe in slabs.

Phil619

They may be out there but ranks (at least US) depleted over decades we have had slabbing.  Many estates handled that elusive golden riches piece not there or been cleaned, worn slick.  I believe any real nice stuff the owner likely sold years ago.

greatcollections

The vast majority of important coins are already in holders, however, sometimes something really cool comes out of the woodwork - like the roll of 1909-S VDB pennies we handled a few years ago. Or the 1895 Proof Morgan that sold for $200k.

- Ian