How much of a premium should a rare CAC coin bring in this scenario.....

Seth_WitterCoin

Lets say you have a rare Twenty Lib that has a PCGS pop of 3 in MS65, none higher.

One of the 65 coins is CAC. You haven't seen the coin, but most people say its head and shoulders above the other two, but not quite a 66.

How much of a premium should the CAC coin bring, and why?

I will post my answer later on.

SeatedNut

Don’t know enough about the series nor do I swim in the pool with finest known examples… But here are a few thoughts… How many 64s with CAC are there? What’s the price spread between them? Are there any gold cac label 63 or 64s? How many set building whales are in the market for potentially the finest known at the time? Has the coin sold at auction recently?

Don’t know the answer but I can tell you this. For SLDs. If it’s a PQ coin I need for my set and I can afford it. Triple price guide is not out of the question. Partly because price guides are not up to date on most issues and partly because "Opportunity" costs money. May not be willing to wait another decade for another opportunity!

MarkFeld

If available, more information is needed. Has either of the non-CAC examples traded previously and if so, when and at what level? Even if not, what's the approximate price level involved?

john

The question begs an answer based on a conclusion: that the other 2 pieces are not of equality.

Accepting that premise for the purpose of the hypothetical, my position would be no premium, instead of how much of a premium.

Adding on to the Mr. Feld call for information, I would want to know if the 2 non-CAC examples are non-CAC status because they were already evaluated by CAC, or had the 2 pieces not been submitted yet.

Gambling on opinion is certainly a personal choice, and we all do so, especially when discussing TPG and 4PG Grading. Conclusion based on illogical logic assumption of a hypothetical is a world apart from "how much".

BustDMs

Price it 🌝 money sit tight and wait for the next 🐳 to swim by.

CACfan

Seth_WitterCoin said:

Lets say you have a rare Twenty Lib that has a PCGS pop of 3 in MS65, none higher.

One of the 65 coins is CAC. You haven't seen the coin, but most people say its head and shoulders above the other two, but not quite a 66.

How much of a premium should the CAC coin bring, and why?

I will post my answer later on.

Only the two billionaires caught in a bidding war know the answer.

Legend

Seth, this would be impossible for someone not in that market daily to know other then w/a wild guess. Try again too look good!

WilliamJ

I  tend to believe that 15% to 20% would be conservative but in most cases it may not be enough. Depending on circumstances...
 
Why; It may possibly be, a once in a lifetime, opportunity! 

Phil619

If you want an analysis you need to include date MM on this.  The one of most important data piece in Numismatic analysis.  Understand that in financial analysis you need to provide the pertinent data.

First of all sight unseen is out for me in this scenario.

I would need view the coins in hand, plus under magnification or at least the CAC piece.   Since a pop of just 3 in 65 obviously this is a 5 figure coin or much higher.  I would want the CAC piece assuming it meets my standards especially if as nice or nicer IMO than the others. Why?  I believe be able move it easier and quicker especially at its MV level. Operationally My offer off the bourse would probably be 10 pct back of the CAC CDN bid (assuming I felt it was not in the stratosphere) for the CAC piece. However since you leave out date MM you make this analysis tough. If can’t buy buy it right for my inventory - pass.

Many times CAC coins bid into the stratosphere due to bid wars, especially by the wealthy.   Based on looking over the spread in the sheet between between CAC and non CAC prices if I had to put forward a seat of pants guess would say avg pct CAC premium is 15 pct.  However big ticket high grade rare coins this can go out that window becoming much higher and the premium possibly would be out my inventory investment comfort zone anyway.

So to answer your question compare non CAC and CAC CPG or CDN Bid on this issue.  From that you should be able to make a decision if the deal is there for you.

For low pop single digit material retail pricing - throw out the bid sheets.  Set your price based on your analysis and expertise of what you can get for it especially if it’s PQ.  Analyze the auction data - did they give it away?  So why should that be used as a market price?  Then get in there and swing away.  I was watching that So Cali real estate show on swanky houses out there.  They didn’t spare any punches on asking price especially if the house had a fantastic view of the valley and high end pool.

Legend

Hey Seth, aren't you asking a bit of a steep premium for a $20??? HUH? You know the answer to your own question.

JACAC

Common date? S mint? P mint? 

Vincent.Savage

BustDMs said:

Price it 🌝 money sit tight and wait for the next 🐳 to swim by.

 I’ve always been willing to pay strong money .  Being a businessman I like when myself and others do very well.   But I resent being taken or having my eyes ripped out.   

Make strong money but avoid abusing your customers is my take.  You might get them once or twice but then they’re gone for good .

 As a consumer I check CAC rare coin market review and other sources for values , recent and past sales etc .  

But when I see $14,500 on a $9800 coin it turns me off .  No matter how deep my pockets might be .   Just saying …. 

A mutually respectful working relationship is what works best .  I know Legend lives this in abundance .   ( Though I’ll still ask why occasionally if I don’t understand where a price is coming from.  A simple honest reply is all I ask .  In getting that I may actually go ahead and pay that price anyways since I know the why!! ) 

Legend

But when I see $14,500 on a $9800 coin it turns me off . No matter how deep my pockets might be . Just saying ….

If Bob Simspon had those feelings he never would have bought so many coins that were a fraction of a point to the next grade. And ultimately-they became the next grade. His collection is a perfect example of paying top dollar for the very best. That IS the world I know and I live in.

Incredible quality DOES Smatter still. You can have a MONSTER MS 65 Better date CAC Saint. guides could be $10,000.00. But because it has color and is very high end, it could be $15,000.00. The only problem, there are fewer and fewer of those coins. Today so many dealers just hype their okay coins. If you know the difference, then you win.

Vincent.Savage

Legend said:

But when I see $14,500 on a $9800 coin it turns me off . No matter how deep my pockets might be . Just saying …. If Bob Simspon had those feelings he never would have bought so many coins that were a fraction of a point to the next grade. And ultimately-they became the next grade. His collection is a perfect example of paying top dollar for the very best. That IS the world I know and I live in. Incredible quality DOES Smatter still. You can have a MONSTER MS 65 Better date CAC Saint. guides could be $10,000.00. But because it has color and is very high end, it could be $15,000.00. The only problem, there are fewer and fewer of those coins. Today so many dealers just hype their okay coins. If you know the difference, then you win.

I’m trying to learn Legend , that’s why when you explain things I go from where I was to moving forward .  I had the same feeling on that ‘32 last month ….    

 I’m learning the error of my ways , I trust you and you have made buying higher end coins for me this week much easier.    I just didn’t want to see the same thing what happened with realtors and housing prices in late 2005 happen to the rare coin biz .

Thanks again for your taking the time to straighten me out on these things . 

TheCoinHound

I can't imagine there being a correct answer to the question.

WilliamJ

Colombianito said:

I’m trying to learn Legend , that’s why when you explain things I go from where I was to moving forward .  I had the same feeling on that ‘32 last month ….    

 I’m learning the error of my ways , I trust you and you have made buying higher end coins for me this week much easier.    I just didn’t want to see the same thing what happened with realtors and housing prices in late 2005 happen to the rare coin biz .

Thanks again for your taking the time to straighten me out on these things . 

I  am also trying to learn more and really appreciate everyone's questions and answers!

EarlyFederalCoinage

Common date or better date? What is the next highest grade? How many near gem coins?

Legend

Seth, didn't you just take a shot at me on a rare $20 Lib? come on. Because something is a low pop even in this market does not mean you can or should ask 50%-100%more then what it is really worth! You don't want to be known as a shot taker

Remember, collectors decide the market. Not you or I.

Vincent.Savage

Not needed in conservation 

TheCoinHound

Legend said:

Remember, collectors decide the market. Not you or I.

Actually, dealers play a huge role in defining values.

oreville

JACAC said:

Common date? S mint? P mint? 

What about my favorite CC Mint?