THE BALTIMORE SHOW

Legend

The show was a monster BEFORE the show even opened its doors!

Dealers packed the 2 huge rooms at the convention centers before the show and actually spilled out to the lobby. By the time the show opened, most dealers little left.

A word on pricing: better gold seems to have risen yet again. Hard to say what %. Your not going to be able to see the sheets or internet values keeping up. The good news is, dealers could not buy gold, so they finally started to buy some Type. No major movements there, but it should happen soon.

Word of advice, what ever the coins end at in this upcoming Stacks sale will be the new market levels. The Fairmont deal will go nuclear so be prepared.

This is a strong market still-but I did hear light grumbling. Keep that in the back of your mind.

john

Legend said:

The show was a monster BEFORE the show even opened its doors!

Dealers packed the 2 huge rooms at the convention centers before the show and actually spilled out to the lobby. By the time the show opened, most dealers little left.

A word on pricing: better gold seems to have risen yet again. Hard to say what %. Your not going to be able to see the sheets or internet values keeping up. The good news is, dealers could not buy gold, so they finally started to buy some Type. No major movements there, but it should happen soon.

Word of advice, what ever the coins end at in this upcoming Stacks sale will be the new market levels. The Fairmont deal will go nuclear so be prepared.

This is a strong market still-but I did hear light grumbling. Keep that in the back of your mind.

Thank you for the Report. There was/is a disappointment of the collectors I talked to. I was not disappointed, per say, but it did seem a little empty, and a number of collectors used the term (mod edit) when describing the pickings. I thought to myself "gosh, a lot of collectors read Ms. Sperber market updates".

I can understand the description of a monster show from the dealer point of view, though.

WilliamJ

My dealer says the show was/ is a very good one. Much better than the last FUN show. He found me a few cac gold coins that I needed. Looking forward to Monday when he is back in town with my new coins. Hopefully he found some other good coins also!

TurtleCat

Interesting. A dealer friend who supplies some of my gold dollars was there hoping to find an example or two for me. Nice gold dollars that are CAC and not in the stratosphere are hard to find these days. I just wonder if this is sustainable or a bubble?

Legend

It was almost unfair for the collectors who attended the show if they were seeking better coins. If you had a dealer in the pre show mix they might have found a coin for you.

I do think we are in a bubble-the only problem, every time I think that the depths of the current market is proven me wrong. I was around in 1980 and 1989. I just don't trust things.

WilliamJ

I hope  this is somewhat sustainable. Otherwise, I suspect a bubble  could burst, then what? 

mellado

If collector attendance was perceived to be a bit light, it’s because of the covid BA2 so widely & suddenly infecting. I’m 3x vaccinated & caught it lot viewing at Heritage Dallas 2 weeks ago. First show I’ve had to cancel in 64+ years for health reasons.
I can tell you I’d be hospitalized were it not for Moderna 3 x. Almost time for another booster. This BA2 is like the worst cold you’ve ever experienced. Sure missed the Balto show and Stacks lot
viewing. Guess I’ll have to bid “ blind”.

breakdown

i was there Thursday afternoon and attendance did not seem light to me.  It was hard to get through the crowd at some tables.  Having said that, I did not see much of what I am looking for but many others seemed to be transacting business (although a lot of it was still dealer-dealer). 

Pyrite

Without being a dealer and seeing firsthand the dynamics and motivation ....and sense of urgency ...in your customers, it's REALLY hard to tell "bubble" from a "trend."
Interaction is the only way to judge.

MarkFeld

Pyrite said:

Without being a dealer and seeing firsthand the dynamics and motivation ....and sense of urgency ...in your customers, it's REALLY hard to tell "bubble" from a "trend."
Interaction is the only way to judge.

Actually, the only way to judge accurately will be hindsight.

TheCoinHound

.

MarkFeld said:

Pyrite said:

Without being a dealer and seeing firsthand the dynamics and motivation ....and sense of urgency ...in your customers, it's REALLY hard to tell "bubble" from a "trend."
Interaction is the only way to judge.

Actually, the only way to judge accurately will be hindsight.

I'm not so sure about that. I think you can identify bubbles simply by talking to the big players. If most of them think that prices are crazy and are only buying for the quick flip, it's a bubble, and you can expect them to cash out on any weakness. Doesn't mean that you can predict the exact top, but you can identify the bubble.

So are we in a bubble now? Depending on what you collect, the answer varies.

MarkFeld

TheCoinHound said:

.

MarkFeld said:

Pyrite said:

Without being a dealer and seeing firsthand the dynamics and motivation ....and sense of urgency ...in your customers, it's REALLY hard to tell "bubble" from a "trend."
Interaction is the only way to judge.

Actually, the only way to judge accurately will be hindsight.

I'm not so sure about that. I think you can identify bubbles simply by talking to the big players. If most of them think that prices are crazy and are only buying for the quick flip, it's a bubble, and you can expect them to cash out on any weakness. Doesn't mean that you can predict the exact top, but you can identify the bubble.

So are we in a bubble now? Depending on what you collect, the answer varies.

And I’m not so sure about that.😉 For each big player who thinks prices are crazy and correctly calls a bubble, I think there might be another who thinks prices are crazy and incorrectly calls one. Admittedly, I can’t prove it and might be mistaken.

Just for fun, how about naming a few areas you think/know are in a bubble, now and we can revisit this discussion in six months and/or a year?

Pyrite

Capped bust gold Eagles?

MeantToBeSpent

low pop late date Walkers (esp if also CAC). You can see my thread on the 36-d's price manipulation and my other thread about the 43-p and 45-s market caps for evidence. Late date Lincolns and Mercs seem to have some similar issues. Not quite sure what to say about Washington quarters and Franklin halves. Perhaps the bubble already popped. I'd say it already popped on Jeffs and Roosies.

TheCoinHound

MarkFeld said:

.

Without being a dealer and seeing firsthand the dynamics and motivation ....and sense of urgency ...in your customers, it's REALLY hard to tell "bubble" from a "trend." Interaction is the only way to judge.

Actually, the only way to judge accurately will be hindsight.

I'm not so sure about that. I think you can identify bubbles simply by talking to the big players. If most of them think that prices are crazy and are only buying for the quick flip, it's a bubble, and you can expect them to cash out on any weakness. Doesn't mean that you can predict the exact top, but you can identify the bubble. So are we in a bubble now? Depending on what you collect, the answer varies.

And I’m not so sure about that.😉 For each big player who thinks prices are crazy and correctly calls a bubble, I think there might be another who thinks prices are crazy and incorrectly calls one. Admittedly, I can’t prove it and might be mistaken. Just for fun, how about naming a few areas you think/know are in a bubble, now and we can revisit this discussion in six months and/or a year?

I can’t tell you where the bubbles are because I don’t have my finger on the pulse of any bubbly markets. (I can guess at where the bubbles are based on my perception of value, but that’s not actual market intelligence.) On the other hand, I can confidently state that the very hot high end Latin American market is not a bubble, because everyone I talk to is a true believer. And I can say that the warming US pattern market is nowhere near bubble territory for the same reason. 

pcgscacgold

One may think there is a bubble in C and D mint CAC gold. In the last year Classic Head Half Eagles in AU50 for these mints have gone from $12000 to $24000+. Either they were priced wrong for the last many years or they are at a point that is not a long term value. Time will tell. Even a VF25 is now $12000. Go back a year and check the price on that.

Many other CAC gold issues have also doubled very quickly. That usually points to a bubble.

Vincent.Savage

I think it’s all relative .    The last few years we’ve seen our real estate holding shoot through the roof , our stock brokerage accounts have skyrocketed as well as just about anything else.   Guns , art and coins too 

 So it’s all relative .    

The difference between now and 2008/9 is that there was a financial underlying issue at that time .    That’s why people got zapped when the music stopped and they had no chair to sit in ..

Right now if you’re paying $16,500 for an ms 67 Saint that was $13,000 a year and a half ago , it shouldn’t bother you or cause fear .  Because it’s much easier to pay for it now with your other appreciated assets .


If you’re one of those that wasn’t invested but now wants to scramble , you’re too late .   ( I think , but one thing I’ve learned is you can’t time the market or anything else )

So get what you want , pay as much as you’re comfortable with and enjoy . The money works it’s self out in the end .

Pyrite

Yep, Real estate and stocks are S-K-Y-R-O-C-K-I-N-G !!!!
LOTS of loans going out for pricey houses. ohhhh BOY!
But 2008 can never happen again ....
uhhhh.....

john

Pyrite said:

Yep, Real estate and stocks are S-K-Y-R-O-C-K-I-N-G !!!!
LOTS of loans going out for pricey houses. ohhhh BOY!
But 2008 can never happen again ....
uhhhh.....

Yes, because 2008 mortgage rates of 6.16%/30 and 5.96%/15 and average loan to price ratio of 76.3%, as opposed to a past 52 week low of 2.28/30 and 1.93/15 with loan to price ratio of 63.19, and March 22 is 4.67/30 average loan to price ratio of 92.7 today and 3.82/15 average loan to price ratio of 80.19.

2008 inflation rate of .50 Jan 2008 to -1 Dec. 2008 and average rate of .09% for 2008, vs. 7.39% average 2022.

I can talk about the core index value comparisons, if that helps clarify.

You are correct, and just didn't know you were. 2008 can never happen again.

I do think that you may have chosen the correct field of endeavor, though.

Don't hit me. I am old.

coastaljerseyguy

The other thing to add is the period 02 - 08 was the 'non-doc' mortgage liar loans mainly originated by WAMU in the hundred of billions and sold & packaged by Merrill, BofA and Wachovia. WAMU would loan you big money even if you had no job. Although the loan to price ratio is much better today, it is also because home price appreciation has escalated much more rapidly now. My home has gone up 50% in < 1 year now vs maybe 30% over 5 years back in the 02-08 period. So these figures can pull back, but loan origination standards are supposedly been stricter. What concerns me are the home flippers are prevalent as in the past since they use the inflated prices of other homes to borrow & buy more homes. Time will tell.

oreville

Laura Legend stated:

" By the time the show opened, most dealers little left."

Not following Laura's comment. Did she leave out a single word?

Did Laura mean to state By the time the show opened, most dealers HAD little left?