StacksBowers session 1 Baltimore auction

mellado

I just finished watching/ participating in the StacksBowers Baltimore auction April 4, exonumia section. I’ve been active in this numismatic tangent field many decades & am simply astonished at today’s prices realized.
While the pinnacle was the 1839 “ restrike”
gold Daniel Morgan Comitia Americana medal at virtually $1M all in, most other medals reached unimaginable heights - clearly in my opinion a transfer of collector interest from
perceived over- priced high grade “ rare coins”
to related & far rarer, far more historical medals & tokens, reflecting numismatic tastes
in the pre-1900 hobby. I saw this too in the 2 weeks ago Heritage Dallas J Doyle DeWitt
political Americana auction which I did physically attend. Quite refreshing I might say.

MarkFeld

Out of curiosity, what makes you think “a transfer of interest from perceived over- priced high grade “ rare coins”
to related & far rarer, far more historical medals & tokens, reflecting numismatic tastes“ as opposed to “an accompanying interest”?

mellado

There’s only so much $ out there in the numismatic hobby.As a serious collector of significant means in numismatics for 64 + yrs, and knowing quite a few
other “ rare coin” collectors who are priced- out, I see a noticeable transfer of interest. And a corresponding huge increase in exonumia prices. No, not
an “ accompanying interest”. Other coin collectors appear to be tired of the huge price differences “ justified” by a nebulous single point or even a + plus grade.

MarkFeld

mellado said:

There’s only so much $ out there in the numismatic hobby.As a serious collector of significant means in numismatics for 64 + yrs, and knowing quite a few
other “ rare coin” collectors who are priced- out, I see a noticeable transfer of interest. And a corresponding huge increase in exonumia prices. No, not
an “ accompanying interest”. Other coin collectors appear to be tired of the huge price differences “ justified” by a nebulous single point or even a + plus grade.

Thank you. I’m seeing strength in most areas - including extremely common coins, as well as top grade examples. Please note that I’m not saying I think all of it’s justified, only that it’s occurring.

noahlh

FWIW, I found the prices realized from session 1 (super rarities & medals notwithstanding) to be slightly softer than the trends would have had you expect.

I did a fairly broad sample and saw LOTS of coins - CAC & non-CAC - hammered at Greysheet bid (whereas the past few Heritage sales have been putting the PCGS retail price guide to shame). So either the market is letting out a touch of air (a good thing!), Greysheet has caught up with the market, or a combination of both.

Legend

I dunno, everything I bid on last night I pretty much lost save for one coin. I underbid the $10 1907 RE which sold for $950,000.00 hammer. I thought we had it at $900G but the auctioneer was doing one of those wait forever counts.

I bid on lots of better gold and got nuked.

The prices for the NICE coins were very strong.

Tonight will be a blowout of epic proportions. Think 2 grades ahead on most coins.....There are some rare birds coming up.

pcgscacgold

This auction of Fairmont gold will rewrite the record books for many dates and grades. Good luck to all. The handful of coins I was watching are already above my buy range (without the BP).

mulberryman

I hear you. I bid on 4 gold coins (not at same time). All four have already skyrocketed beyond reasonable. I’m out of them. However, in a dealer inventory, I found a PCGS Indian half eagle of the same date but actually a ‘+’ grade higher with a green CAC sticker for less that the current Stack’s bid plus BP. It just doesn’t have the Fairmont provenance. I bought it instead. It will be interesting to see just how high the Fairmont coins sell for. 

pcgscacgold

Wow, these Half Eagles are really up there. Good call Legend. Many are going for two money of coins 2 grades higher.

Legend

The Fairmont coins are super fresh, have only been through PCGS once, and are totally original. Plus, there are many dates and grades that have never been in auction. A tough combo for collectors to figure.

As of this writing 4:20 I am knocked out of a few coins I thought I'd win easily. Don't get me wrong, the crack out guys are not the only ones feasting. If your a long suffering gold collector of this stuff you will try to pay what it takes. The only problem, so will the next guy.

But there are many coins you over pay for in this sale tonight. In the end, really just establishing the new market levels

Legend

The Fairmont coins brought exactly what they should have-beyond moon money! The 85CC $20 was to die for, the 70CC $20-a SUPERB GEM XF! The $5 1859-S PCGS MS62.....The list goes on. Even at beyond moon money, if you put the coins away for a years you WILL make money. Most of the coins were top pop. If they weren't top pop, they were potential crack outs. You have to go into a sale like that with the attitude I am going to buy it.

Those were coins to over pay on.

ptolemyII

mulberryman said:

I hear you. I bid on 4 gold coins (not at same time). All four have already skyrocketed beyond reasonable. I’m out of them. However, in a dealer inventory, I found a PCGS Indian half eagle of the same date but actually a ‘+’ grade higher with a green CAC sticker for less that the current Stack’s bid plus BP. It just doesn’t have the Fairmont provenance. I bought it instead. It will be interesting to see just how high the Fairmont coins sell for. 

A shrewd purchase..... Fairmont seemed and seems a sure burial ground for buyers of many semi-generics.

skier07

ptolemyII said:

mulberryman said:

I hear you. I bid on 4 gold coins (not at same time). All four have already skyrocketed beyond reasonable. I’m out of them. However, in a dealer inventory, I found a PCGS Indian half eagle of the same date but actually a ‘+’ grade higher with a green CAC sticker for less that the current Stack’s bid plus BP. It just doesn’t have the Fairmont provenance. I bought it instead. It will be interesting to see just how high the Fairmont coins sell for. 

A shrewd purchase..... Fairmont seemed and seems a sure burial ground for buyers of many semi-generics.

But most of Fairmont/Hendricks wasn’t semi-generics.

ptolemyII

skier07 said:

ptolemyII said:

mulberryman said:

I hear you. I bid on 4 gold coins (not at same time). All four have already skyrocketed beyond reasonable. I’m out of them. However, in a dealer inventory, I found a PCGS Indian half eagle of the same date but actually a ‘+’ grade higher with a green CAC sticker for less that the current Stack’s bid plus BP. It just doesn’t have the Fairmont provenance. I bought it instead. It will be interesting to see just how high the Fairmont coins sell for. 

A shrewd purchase..... Fairmont seemed and seems a sure burial ground for buyers of many semi-generics.

But most of Fairmont/Hendricks wasn’t semi-generics.

The vast majority of the sale was decidedly non-generic. I should have been less flippant and more specific. Every P-mint $5 Indian was offered in a generic grade. Review shows unimaginable (50% and more) premiums on imaginably replaceable dates. The sticker on @mulberryman's $5 will be worth something at a date later than yesterday. Any premium for a Fairmont provenance on a common coin will be unsupportable in the aftermarket.

Legend

Any premium for a Fairmont provenance on a common coin will be unsupportable in the aftermarket. I seriously beg to differ.

There will be a certain group of collectors who feel they missed out-even at high prices and will still circle back and buy a coin or two. I see this every crazy sale.

I actually think there is some value to the Fairmont pedigree from this last sale. I bought the 11-D and 14-S $5 in 63 and paid super strong only because I know the rarity of them in CAC. They will find new homes. The commoner date $5-many were potential upgrades. Don't know what else to say.

ptolemyII

Legend said:

Any premium for a Fairmont provenance on a common coin will be unsupportable in the aftermarket. I seriously beg to differ.

There will be a certain group of collectors who feel they missed out-even at high prices and will still circle back and buy a coin or two. I see this every crazy sale.

I actually think there is some value to the Fairmont pedigree from this last sale. I bought the 11-D and 14-S $5 in 63 and paid super strong only because I know the rarity of them in CAC. They will find new homes. The commoner date $5-many were potential upgrades. Don't know what else to say.

You seriously beg to differ because "a coin or two" will not be neglected subsequently? A coin or two is a serious difference????? What a sublime observation. Puhleeeeze save the rest for your next MARKET REPORT and inventory listing.

nalmeter

One head scratcher for me was the 1889-S Liberty Head Eagle. MS-63 (PCGS). CAC.
This is a pretty generic coin in an MS63 grade. Granted, CAC population is 22 in MS63 and 9 in MS64, and 52 total but I wouldn't call this rare. This coin sold for $5,760!!!! CAC price guide is ~$1,600 in MS63 and $2,750 in MS64. In MS65...this is a high 5 figure coin. I did not see it grading two points higher to a GEM. Does provenance support 3x+ pricing? Maybe...
....for the record, I own a PCGS 1889-S Liberty Eagle in MS63 with a CAC sticker...I thought mine is just as nice...it just doesn't have the provenance. Is it worth $5,760? I would not have thought so....but maybe these new prices are resetting gold into the stratosphere. I guess, I'll sit on semi-common CAC gold and wait. LOL!

MarkFeld

nalmeter said:

One head scratcher for me was the 1889-S Liberty Head Eagle. MS-63 (PCGS). CAC.
This is a pretty generic coin in an MS63 grade. Granted, CAC population is 22 in MS63 and 9 in MS64, and 52 total but I wouldn't call this rare. This coin sold for $5,760!!!! CAC price guide is ~$1,600 in MS63 and $2,750 in MS64. In MS65...this is a high 5 figure coin. I did not see it grading two points higher to a GEM. Does provenance support 3x+ pricing? Maybe...
....for the record, I own a PCGS 1889-S Liberty Eagle in MS63 with a CAC sticker...I thought mine is just as nice...it just doesn't have the provenance. Is it worth $5,760? I would not have thought so....but maybe these new prices are resetting gold into the stratosphere. I guess, I'll sit on semi-common CAC gold and wait. LOL!

No, of course provenance doesn't support that type of value. Other factors must be at play.

Luster

nalmeter said:

One head scratcher for me was the 1889-S Liberty Head Eagle. MS-63 (PCGS). CAC.
This is a pretty generic coin in an MS63 grade. Granted, CAC population is 22 in MS63 and 9 in MS64, and 52 total but I wouldn't call this rare. This coin sold for $5,760!!!! CAC price guide is ~$1,600 in MS63 and $2,750 in MS64. In MS65...this is a high 5 figure coin. I did not see it grading two points higher to a GEM. Does provenance support 3x+ pricing? Maybe...
....for the record, I own a PCGS 1889-S Liberty Eagle in MS63 with a CAC sticker...I thought mine is just as nice...it just doesn't have the provenance. Is it worth $5,760? I would not have thought so....but maybe these new prices are resetting gold into the stratosphere. I guess, I'll sit on semi-common CAC gold and wait. LOL!

Lots of people believed the Fairmont coins would sell for two points better than rating due to fresh to market, unmeshed with and the strong uptick in rare gold coins with the guides behind on pricing. Seems to be true in your case stated above.

Legend

As time goes on, the shrewd collectors who stepped up will realize significant gains from their purchases. you can't replicate those coins

MarkFeld

Legend said:

As time goes on, the shrewd collectors who stepped up will realize significant gains from their purchases. you can't replicate those coins

Laurie, you might very well be right about that. On the other hand, you might not. Often, I hear expressions like "You can't go wrong with quality." or "You can't go wrong buying the best." But timing (both when buying and selling) and the price paid, count, too.