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“ Conditional Rarity” - Bah !
This term “ Conditional Rarity” to me and almost all veteran numismatists, is a bunch of
Hooey ( to be polite). A term likely not more than a decade+ old & used by auction houses & some dealers to convince registry collectors
( also a relatively recently- formed group ) to pay big bucks for an otherwise common coin in very slightly lower mint state grade. I just don’t see it & pity those that get taken in, only to lose $$$ when it comes time to sell. There are a whole lot of coins out there that aren’t slabbed yet ( including original rolls) or were slabbed years ago at dramatically lower mint state grades given “Gradeflation”.
Hooey ( to be polite). A term likely not more than a decade+ old & used by auction houses & some dealers to convince registry collectors
( also a relatively recently- formed group ) to pay big bucks for an otherwise common coin in very slightly lower mint state grade. I just don’t see it & pity those that get taken in, only to lose $$$ when it comes time to sell. There are a whole lot of coins out there that aren’t slabbed yet ( including original rolls) or were slabbed years ago at dramatically lower mint state grades given “Gradeflation”.
Comments
Yes, there are a lot of coins that have never been graded. But the large majority of them from approximately the mid-20th century or older, aren’t superb uncirculated examples in rolls, sitting in deposit boxes, waiting to be discovered. As just one example, a common 1946-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar has an NGC population of 2631 in MS66,177 in MS67 and 1 in MS68. It would be perfectly fair and accurate to state that at the MS68 grade level, the date’s a “condition rarity”. To argue otherwise would be “Hooey”.😉
price for “ conditional rarity” when the coin in infinitesimally lower grade is a tiny fraction of cost. As to large cents,
“ condition rarity” has NEVER been used in this field and those early copper enthusiasts as a group abhore such grading terms - as a longtime EAC member who built a fine colln of 1793’s
WL halves. A coin that DOES exist in mint state rolls. And a coin that exists in the multi- thousands of specimens in MS 66-67 ( and that’s just with NGC) but is worth thousands of dollars ( or is it tens of thousands? ) more in MS 68 as
a “ conditional rarity”. That’s “hooey”,
99% of numismatists cannot tell the difference between an MS -67 and
an MS 68. I bring this thought up for readers to “ chew on” . What really is rarer in an absolute sense and an historic/ aesthetic sense? A beautifully toned AU-58 1831 bust quarter or
a “ conditional rarity” 1946-D WL half at many thousands of dollars more?
Fact NOBODY keeps a current accurate population of common high grade examples other than what the grading companies report and we also know how flawed those numbers are even though in this case it really doesn't matter due to unreported ungraded populations. Common high grade coins are just that and to give them a special nomenclature or classification ignores the main purpose of such terms which is to inflate their values and undermine value and real equity in our hobby.
IE the collector relies on distorted info and get burned.......again.
Like them or not and devalue them as you please, but many coins can justifiably be referred to as “condition rarities”. And some of you are throwing out the baby with the bath water.
IS constructed to lure in the naive collector / investor. There will be a reckoning day for those lured into the ego trap of owning the so-called “ finest known” of “ conditionally rare” otherwise common mint state coins. Remember First Coinvestors, run by Stanley Apfelbaum ?
Interestingly, he lived very near John J Ford, Jr.
I wasn't including Trade Dollars of the highest grades. An MS68 Trade Dollar whatever the date is a rarity let alone included in conditional rarity. The 1875-s is common date/mm Trade Dollar, it is incredibly uncommon in ms68. What you are showing is practically the finest known example, which I was not referring to. I was also not referring to Bust, Seated, or Trade Dollars since they are not all that common in high graded condition ie ms65 and up.
The point I was making is that there can be 100's of high ms coins n a certain grouping, wouldn't all be conditional rarity. But when were are under 10 in the higher grades that then is true conditional rarity in my mind. I typically only care about the top 5-10. I didn't think Mel was discussing that ie true conditional rarities. In my mind the term "conditional rarity" has been trashed with certain types of coinage.
My point is that the first sentence in the opening post (“This term “ Conditional Rarity” to me and almost all veteran numismatists, is a bunch of
Hooey ( to be polite).” and a few others, since, are overly broad and unfair to many legitimate rarities.
The term, itself, isn’t the problem, but rather, the inappropriate application of it is. And the huge premiums paid for many common coins, based on virtually indistinguishable differences in quality, doesn’t mean that on its own, the term “conditional rarity” is invalid or inaccurate.
I call it either a phase or the only thing that will remain in the hobby.
Either people will collect for acceptable type design or the mania for perfection will win out.
I don’t know how you came up with MS67 vs. MS66 Walkers and Morgan’s as most overvalued, rather than numerous other coin types which have large spreads between two different grades.
While most of us think it might be crazy of others to pay exponentially more for the unique few coins in a very top grade (where the buyer probably cannot distinguish the difference between that coin and the many more coins graded just one point lower), the FACT is there are the very wealthy passionate collectors that desire/want the VERY best, and can afford what they want. That has always existed in our hobby, although admittedly since the advent of reputable third party grading, those pricing differentials have grown MUCH larger, especially over the last decade.
The coin market will fluctuate, and there will likely be times when top “conditional” rarities will be lower than today. But don’t be silly thinking the differential will shrink so much that you or I will then be able to comfortably afford them.
Separately, I think a stronger argument can be made by the OP and others on MODERN conditional rarities, where the chances of some of the modern ungraded coins can one day get submitted for grading, and enough may also reach those very top grades to dilute their value.
Steve