John, I was looking at some seated half dimes. This 1851-O date caught my eye. Auction Pricing for AU coins in general non-CAC is reaching or surpassing the stated CAC pricing in the greysheet. Here is a snap shot from PCGS website since Dec 2020 (none of which are CAC). - all AU coins represented. Here is the greysheet CAC/non-CAC clip for comparision.
Thanks for Looking as always! Nick
These are updated. Sorry for the delay as I didn't see this post originally. It's always best to email us at pricing@greysheet.com for price reviews. Thanks!
Should auction pricing drive CDN bid which is the basis of CPG? What if some of the auction prices are fluke nuk bids not the real market? Collector A bids up a coin way up. Why should mkt Val go up because he way overpaid?
I’ve communicated a few times with @johnFeigenbaum, and he almost always ignores outliers, as he should!
Steve
Correct. We ignore outliers on pricing results. It's not always obvious what makes an outlier, but we do our best. Feedback always welcome!
Should auction pricing drive CDN bid which is the basis of CPG? What if some of the auction prices are fluke nuk bids not the real market? Collector A bids up a coin way up. Why should mkt Val go up because he way overpaid?
I’ve communicated a few times with @johnFeigenbaum, and he almost always ignores outliers, as he should!
Steve
Correct. We ignore outliers on pricing results. It's not always obvious what makes an outlier, but we do our best. Feedback always welcome!
Often auction and other sale prices for a date and grade when listed, form the shape of a bell curve, the majority falling around the midpoint. However, a few may be much lower in price, and a few much higher in price.
The reasons for that are typically related to eye appeal, with ugly coins selling for much less than the bulk, and super appealing ones selling for more. But the reasons don’t matter. Perhaps two big whales wanted the coin, each bidding moon money.
The point is that when the Greysheet looks at pricing of all recent sales, they often ignore the few that sold for way less than the majority, and they will often also not allow those that sold for way more than the majority dictate a move in their price listings. Those are the outliers!
Often auction and other sale prices for a date and grade when listed, form the shape of a bell curve, the majority falling around the midpoint. However, a few may be much lower in price, and a few much higher in price.
The reasons for that are typically related to eye appeal, with ugly coins selling for much less than the bulk, and super appealing ones selling for more. But the reasons don’t matter. Perhaps two big whales wanted the coin, each bidding moon money.
The point is that when the Greysheet looks at pricing of all recent sales, they often ignore the few that sold for way less than the majority, and they will often also not allow those that sold for way more than the majority dictate a move in their price listings. Those are the outliers!
Steve
Whew!
I thought perhaps I could be an outlier rather than an inlier.
Often auction and other sale prices for a date and grade when listed, form the shape of a bell curve, the majority falling around the midpoint. However, a few may be much lower in price, and a few much higher in price.
The reasons for that are typically related to eye appeal, with ugly coins selling for much less than the bulk, and super appealing ones selling for more. But the reasons don’t matter. Perhaps two big whales wanted the coin, each bidding moon money.
The point is that when the Greysheet looks at pricing of all recent sales, they often ignore the few that sold for way less than the majority, and they will often also not allow those that sold for way more than the majority dictate a move in their price listings. Those are the outliers!
Steve
This makes perfect sense when there’s a lot of activity. When a particular date has two or three transactions that vary quite a bit over the last five years how do you determine if the high or low price is an outlier?
I see dealers refer to the low transaction as an outlier to justify their much higher asking price and the higher price as the new norm.
This makes perfect sense when there’s a lot of activity. When a particular date has two or three transactions that vary quite a bit over the last five years how do you determine if the high or low price is an outlier?
I see dealers refer to the low transaction as an outlier to justify their much higher asking price and the higher price as the new norm.
This, of course, is the most challenging part and where our many years of experience in the rare coin market and relative values comes into play. Sometimes we don't know if a sale is an outlier until a subsequent sale. We use this collective understanding and experience, and we do our best ot follow the market. The rare coin market is not "rational" in the sense that a stock market is rational. Values in our thinly-traded market can easily sway based on the emergence of a new collector, or two, or bullion prices moving sharply, etc. At Greysheet and CPG, we are not afraid to move in both directions as the market shifts. -John
I checked the pricing listings for several pre-1933 gold coins in MS64-MS66 on the "new" CAC website and was very surprised, Significant reductions, all those I checked were at 20% or extremely close. Examples:
1911 $10 MS65 - Previously $10,000, now $8,000 1926 $10 MS64 - Previously $2,440, now #1,950 1902-S $10 MS65 - Previously $5,380, now $4,300 1926 $2.50 MS65 - Previously $3,250, now $2,600 1909-D $5 MS64 - Previously $3,060, now $2,450 1898-S $20 MS64 - Previously $4,500, now $3,600 1922 $1 Grant commem. with star MS66 - Previously $3,090, now $2,473
Wish I had recorded more of the previous price guide figures, these are just a few I happened to have written down to use as a guide when viewing coins for sale online.
Prices for everything have dropped significantly since the launching of the new CAC website yesterday. I'm guessing this is a glitch of some kind? Were the non-CAC prices perhaps loaded by mistake? Not sure what to make of it.
What struck me was how each coin I could check showed a reduction of exactly 20%, or within 0.09%. It looks like a blanket 20% reduction, although there were only these few that I could check.
I saw the same issue as well. Suspect old prices displayed "retail" and new prices are "wholesale" or something similar. Unclear if that was an intentional change or not.
Comments
John
John
The reasons for that are typically related to eye appeal, with ugly coins selling for much less than the bulk, and super appealing ones selling for more. But the reasons don’t matter. Perhaps two big whales wanted the coin, each bidding moon money.
The point is that when the Greysheet looks at pricing of all recent sales, they often ignore the few that sold for way less than the majority, and they will often also not allow those that sold for way more than the majority dictate a move in their price listings. Those are the outliers!
Steve
I thought perhaps I could be an outlier rather than an inlier.
This makes perfect sense when there’s a lot of activity. When a particular date has two or three transactions that vary quite a bit over the last five years how do you determine if the high or low price is an outlier?
I see dealers refer to the low transaction as an outlier to justify their much higher asking price and the higher price as the new norm.
Steve
-John
1911 $10 MS65 - Previously $10,000, now $8,000
1926 $10 MS64 - Previously $2,440, now #1,950
1902-S $10 MS65 - Previously $5,380, now $4,300
1926 $2.50 MS65 - Previously $3,250, now $2,600
1909-D $5 MS64 - Previously $3,060, now $2,450
1898-S $20 MS64 - Previously $4,500, now $3,600
1922 $1 Grant commem. with star MS66 - Previously $3,090, now $2,473
Wish I had recorded more of the previous price guide figures, these are just a few I happened to have written down to use as a guide when viewing coins for sale online.