JF, Thanks for pulling back the curtain and providing more detail on the process. I have no background in market technology, but it makes total sense that the data need to be submitted in a format that enables the price guide to integrate automatically. Otherwise you would need a small army of coin geeks to process constantly changing data for thousands of coins at 25 grade levels. As a geek I would volunteer, but I can’t quit my day job … because I need an income to collect coins….I wish you success with GC and hope they understand that having up to date values in the CAC price guide supports their sale of CAC coins. I believe GC widely advertises their CAC sales, so self-interest should prevail.
Thank you for the kind words. I can assure you there is no "small army" available for this cause. Only a few people in the industry really have the scope of knowledge and time available to do this pricing effectively which is why we covet real-world market data. That said, we are always open to hearing from anyone who has an interest in helping us with market pricing. Anyone out there can send me a PM or email (john@greysheet.com).
@johnFeigenbaum I can't imagine how often collectors or their heirs ask you to provide factual data for the "fair market value" of a coin, but I personally believe that this is one truly beneficial aspects of your great work. Thank you so much!
@johnFeigenbaum I can't imagine how often collectors or their heirs ask you to provide factual data for the "fair market value" of a coin, but I personally believe that this is one truly beneficial aspects of your great work. Thank you so much!
We always try to respond to inquiries, or let our body of work speak for itself. It's rewarding in itself that folks like yourself appreciate what we do. Thank you.
Is anyone else out there getting tired of today’s inflated prices? I hope it’s not just me. I’ve been looking at some auction records from just a year ago for some nice gold and pattern pieces. Prices have risen around 35% to 40% or more in 12 months. I guess it’s what the market bears. If you’ve paid these higher prices, I hope we don’t see a big collapse in the future. If you are selling, great time for that.
I agree! Prices are way up! The coins that I really want are much more expensive and I can barely justify paying that much, but what will they cost in the future? Why are people paying so much?
Is anyone else out there getting tired of today’s inflated prices? I hope it’s not just me. I’ve been looking at some auction records from just a year ago for some nice gold and pattern pieces. Prices have risen around 35% to 40% or more in 12 months. I guess it’s what the market bears. If you’ve paid these higher prices, I hope we don’t see a big collapse in the future. If you are selling, great time for that.
I've thought about this for a bit before responding. As a collector and dealer, I've typically been a market contrarian. I tend to gravitate to the "less hot" areas of the market for value. So, if your particular area is on fire, then maybe it's an opportune time to pursue other segments of the market. Even in US coins, there are some sleeper areas. I think early copper, for example, is quite underrated at the moment. Patterns are still cheap considering their rarity. U.S. Philippine issues, etc. I even see value in some modern issues like gem MS Jefferson nickels and Roosevelt dimes (earlier issues).
On another tangent world coins are heating up, but world paper money has incredible potential. CDN has invested heavily in a product called the Banknote Book which is a comprehensive catalog of nearly every country's issues of paper money. It's an exciting frontier for the numismatist and most items are truly inexpensive.
In two words, my suggestion is "don't chase." But don't compromise on quality, either.
I agree! Prices are way up! The coins that I really want are much more expensive and I can barely justify paying that much, but what will they cost in the future? Why are people paying so much?
Two possible reasons: 1. They think the items they are undervalued, relative to other collectibles 2. They feel that "investing" in rare coins is a better store of wealth than other asset classes, with the additional benefit of enjoying their investment
Dealers and experts have been making these claims about rare coins for years only to fall on deaf ears as prices languished. Now the market has become truly bullish and it's about time. However, it is a little scary for buyers. All the more reason to build that trusted relationship with an established, well-regarded professional and get the best advice possible.
I agree! Prices are way up! The coins that I really want are much more expensive and I can barely justify paying that much, but what will they cost in the future? Why are people paying so much?
A better explanation is the change in the younger and middle age generation pursuit of hobbies. Back in the 1950's and 1960's collecting coins and even stamps had very little competition from pin ball games as such pin ball games were only available outside the home and the home was the center of all hobby pursuits. Fast forward to the 1970's and 1980's saw the growth of video games but video games were still limited to purchases or rentals at various stores. In the 1990's and 2000's, the internet in the home simply took over the attention span of the younger generation which killed coin and stamp collecting. The corona virus helped to restore coin collecting to the center of the stay-at-home activities as they were completely safe from the virus and also had intrinsic value but stamp collecting has not come back in the same way since it was too far gone.
Hi. I have a question about CU and/or CDN pricing. I’ve noticed that sometimes the price guides do not reflect prices per recent auction sale(s) and other times there are recent auction sales but price guides don’t reflect it. I’ll give you one example of each.
Take an 1878 J 1574 $5 PCGS PR63 Ex Simpson No CAC sticker pattern. Current CU price is $20,000. This coin sold on 11/20 Heritage Signature auction 1321 lot 3260 for $12,600. I can’t find any other auction info more recent but I suppose it could have changed hands privately but probably didn’t. So, in just over 13 months with no other known sale info, this piece increased by about $7,400. Seems steep. Where did CU come up with that?
On the other hand, I saw a “relatively” common 1885 G$1 PCGS MS66 CAC OGH sell at recent Heritage Fun (lot 7202) for $4,200 with the current CU at $2,750 and CDN CAC at $2,810. So recent sale had no impact on price guide.
Hi. I have a question about CU and/or CDN pricing. I’ve noticed that sometimes the price guides do not reflect prices per recent auction sale(s) and other times there are recent auction sales but price guides don’t reflect it. I’ll give you one example of each.
Take an 1878 J 1574 $5 PCGS PR63 Ex Simpson No CAC sticker pattern. Current CU price is $20,000. This coin sold on 11/20 Heritage Signature auction 1321 lot 3260 for $12,600. I can’t find any other auction info more recent but I suppose it could have changed hands privately but probably didn’t. So, in just over 13 months with no other known sale info, this piece increased by about $7,400. Seems steep. Where did CU come up with that?
On the other hand, I saw a “relatively” common 1885 G$1 PCGS MS66 CAC OGH sell at recent Heritage Fun (lot 7202) for $4,200 with the current CU at $2,750 and CDN CAC at $2,810. So recent sale had no impact on price guide.
Guess I’m wondering how this works? Thanks.
I cannot comment on CU pricing as we have no affiliation with them, but I can speak as someone who works on pricing every day. I like to approach pricing in a sort of random manner. I typically focus on areas/items first that require immediate attention. For example, someone might send us an email asking us to review 3-cent nickels, or proof quarter eagles. Next I will review the market bids on CDN Exchange from the day. On busy days we might get as many as 500-1000 new market bids (from our dealer members) on the exchange, and we review each one to make sure it's in line with the market, and also, how those new bids might affect other items in a series. After that, we review recent auction results (APRs). The idea of manually reviewing 200,000 coins every week, or even month, is simply not possible, so we do our best to get around to everything in a rotation.
This weekend, as an example, I spent a few hours reviewing California Fractional Gold auction results from the past 6 months. It was quite interesting because I think this is one area that remains under-appreciated at the moment. Lots of value here and the coins are really scarce. Here's the link to 25-cent pieces if you're interested.
Finally, in response to your last question. I think the "OGH" probably had a lot to do with the premium this coin received at auction. I expect old holder coins to exceed the market. If they don't it's noteworthy that the issue might be over-valued at our current levels. Lately, there haven't been many examples of that...
You want a CAC pricing discussion? How about the $364,250 realized for the 1938-S MS68+FB CAC Mercury dime? Versus its then-CU of $4,750 for MS68FB? The Registry Set was likely a culprit but the CAC bean must have significantly helped.
For that $364K, you could have bought several high-grade 1916-D's and 1942/1's that would have held their value. All CAC's, of course.
Without the marketing genius of David Hall's Registry Set and Plus, and JA's CAC bean, this is a $5,000 coin tops.
And wow, does that toning look fake to me.
"A fool and his money are soon parted" -- Thomas Tusser
Cacfan- I believed it was 100% original and my team felt the same. You are, of course, entitled to your expert opinion. The price- that’s another story and a bit confusing. I feel it’s not necessarily due to the competition on the registry or that there’s a registry at all, but more likely the flawed registry scoring. In my opinion, rarity in all grades should be weighted much higher than common condition rarities. CAC is currently working on it’s own registry and hope to have it ready in late 2022 . We live in a world where an ms65 1932-D quarter -always considered the most prized Washington Quarter is less sought after than let’s say a 1962-D quarter in ms68+. A case of “ the tail wagging the dog”. This silliness, in my opinion is not sustainable and will end badly. I’d like your input on registry scoring, call me anytime. Thanks Ja
JA - Is it fair to assume that even though greater weight will be given in the upcoming CAC Registry to rarer dates, that CAC’d coins with Plus grades will still have the Plus ignored, despite the fact that the market reflects higher prices for those coins, just as they do for coins of rarer dates?
We haven’t paid attention to the plus for about 10 years. The only way to recognize it effectively would be to view every plus coin with a fresh review. I’m very familiar with many of your amazing purchases as they came from a mutual friend. For the life of of me, why aren’t 90% of them pluses? We sticker hundreds of amazing coins on a weekly basis that deserve a plus.
Good morning RK. After 14 years , not “needed” I’d just like it scored in a more traditional manner. See my comments above about modern quarters dethroning the 32-D. Ja
Comments
John
David would have been so proud of your accomplishments!
Why are people paying so much?
On another tangent world coins are heating up, but world paper money has incredible potential. CDN has invested heavily in a product called the Banknote Book which is a comprehensive catalog of nearly every country's issues of paper money. It's an exciting frontier for the numismatist and most items are truly inexpensive.
In two words, my suggestion is "don't chase." But don't compromise on quality, either.
-John
1. They think the items they are undervalued, relative to other collectibles
2. They feel that "investing" in rare coins is a better store of wealth than other asset classes, with the additional benefit of enjoying their investment
Dealers and experts have been making these claims about rare coins for years only to fall on deaf ears as prices languished. Now the market has become truly bullish and it's about time. However, it is a little scary for buyers. All the more reason to build that trusted relationship with an established, well-regarded professional and get the best advice possible.
John
Hi. I have a question about CU and/or CDN pricing. I’ve noticed that sometimes the price guides do not reflect prices per recent auction sale(s) and other times there are recent auction sales but price guides don’t reflect it. I’ll give you one example of each.
Guess I’m wondering how this works? Thanks.
This weekend, as an example, I spent a few hours reviewing California Fractional Gold auction results from the past 6 months. It was quite interesting because I think this is one area that remains under-appreciated at the moment. Lots of value here and the coins are really scarce. Here's the link to 25-cent pieces if you're interested.
Finally, in response to your last question. I think the "OGH" probably had a lot to do with the premium this coin received at auction. I expect old holder coins to exceed the market. If they don't it's noteworthy that the issue might be over-valued at our current levels. Lately, there haven't been many examples of that...
For that $364K, you could have bought several high-grade 1916-D's and 1942/1's that would have held their value. All CAC's, of course.
Without the marketing genius of David Hall's Registry Set and Plus, and JA's CAC bean, this is a $5,000 coin tops.
And wow, does that toning look fake to me.
"A fool and his money are soon parted" -- Thomas Tusser
Steve
you stated “ CAC is currently working on it’s own registry and hope to have it ready in late 2022.”
You really think it is needed to have?