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Current Market, Values, Scarcity etc

edited November 17 in Conservation
Edit -- Sorry this should be in a diff Category. I thought it said "Conversation". need my specs

Hi All
Something I've been thinking about and noticing lately...
If you are into older U.S. Coins, the past few years I have noticed that if there is a coin you want/need for your collection or set, it seems you may need to be willing to make a move on it.
Not sure I would call it "being aggressive", but definitely seems you need to know what you want and be willing to make a move.

Any others have any thoughts on this observation?

P.T.
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Comments

  • I fully agree. Here’s more:

    Up until around 2018/2019, as a collector, I found it easy buying coins in auctions. I was competing mainly against dealers, who were limited in their bids, as they had to make sure when they retailed their coins, they could make a profit. As such, not too tough outbidding dealers. I think my perception is correct that back then, the percentage of bidders in auctions that were collectors was much smaller than the most recent few years.

    Now, when I bid in auctions, I’m competing against a much larger percentage of collectors. As such, it’s much tougher to be the high bidder, and that is a portion of the reason recent auction prices have caused a rise in coin market value.

    Steve
  • edited November 17
    Hi Steve. Your time frame matches what I have observed also. I was acquiring what I considered “value” coins, ie fairly rare dates and fairly rare conditional quality, at relative ease, until around 2018/2019.
    One could speculate that the Pandemic gave people more time indoors with a need for something to do, which gave a boost to the overall numismatic market.
    Whether that is the case or not, the past few years seem marked by a much smaller supply of rare dates and rare conditions.
    As a rich but representative example, looking on eBay for an 1806 draped bust large cent, reveals almost none in higher price/conditional rarity. As another example, a search on eBay for 1825 capped bust dime shows 3-4 premium coins (out of the price range of many at $3500+ to $100,000) but very little in the XF or AU slabbed graded zone.
    With this thinly capitalized of a market, I would expect to see graded coins such as these examples getting strong bidding at the Auction Houses when examples come up for bidding. I wouldn’t be surprised at price pressure on the public published pricing guidelines.
  • I have had the same experience. But I have another explanation. Based on conversations with dealers, I’m not convinced that a whole new generation of coin collectors materialized out of thin air during COVID. Think about what it takes to collect rare coins. First, keen interest. Second, passion. Third, knowledge. Fourth, capital. I’m not sure that staying home created the first three.

    My theory is that with the sale of TPGs to the money class, investors and others are bidding up coins indiscriminately. Even auction houses themselves. I’m informed that auction houses often place bids on coins in their own auctions. I think these “interests” are banking on continuously rising prices, so they keep bidding. And, they know collectors don’t have much choice. Eventually, collectors will stop. And the market will unravel.

    My advice: don’t get caught up in the frenzy. More coins keep entering the market. Be patient.
  • I agree with you PeachyToning and Winesteven about the difficulty buying at auction since Covid. There appear to be many more collectors bidding at auction and some of them are willing to pay phenomenal prices for what they want. I have had better luck purchasing from respectable dealers with a modest markup on their coins this year. Yes CACNUTCOLLECTOR my trust in the top two TPG's has greatly diminished. The new CAC grading company will be a needed breath of fresh air!
  • edited November 21
    Coinbert said:

    I agree with you PeachyToning and Winesteven about the difficulty buying at auction since Covid. There appear to be many more collectors bidding at auction and some of them are willing to pay phenomenal prices for what they want. I have had better luck purchasing from respectable dealers with a modest markup on their coins this year. Yes CACNUTCOLLECTOR my trust in the top two TPG's has greatly diminished. The new CAC grading company will be a needed breath of fresh air!

    Yes, agreed, but my problem is the coins I typically need/want are virtually only coming up at auction (smart move by the consignors) rather than via dealers. EVERY evening I do my search on collectorscorner.com, and I also receive daily emails of newps from several dealers. I also have "Saved Searches" set up on eBay. So yes, some coins I need I do get at fair prices from dealers, but unfortunately that's a small minority of my purchases.

    Steve
  • Ditto to that Steve. Patience is required now more than ever for coin purchases.
    Joey
  • Coinbert said:

    Ditto to that Steve. Patience is required now more than ever for coin purchases.
    Joey

    Patience???? What's that???? lol. My slight touch of paranoia tells me that when a coin I need in the grade I want, with nice eye appeal comes along, if I don't snag it then, I may not see a suitable substitute for a decade (or more).
  • Yes. You are correct. I purchased a Bust quarter that had been off the market since 2005 for much more than the price guides.
    It was a now or never deal.
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