What coins do you overpay for?

GoldenMan

The way the market is going I really don’t want to buy any coins right now at auction. Buying from a dealers set price list is fine. I just think the prices are crazy and see some people being buried in there purchases. A few early gold coins that brought really strong money come to mind. The 1861 au53 seated dollar that was on GFRC auction comes to mind. Cac price guide just received a bump but the coin sold for MS64 money 😮 
Boy that’s a hard pill to swallow, well over twice cac price guide now. Probably 3 times before the bump. 

Do you think the collector will ever get there money out of a purchase like that? Would you pay MS64 money for an au53? 

pcgscacgold

People appear to have a lot of extra spending money on their hands and are putting it into coins.  I don't think there is a way to guess when that influx will stop.  Nothing goes up for ever though.  I guess the question is will these people be long term holders or are they trying to flip these coins. 

I am seeing dealers ask double what they paid in the summer (auction results) for CAC gold coins.  The amazing thing is there are people buying them.  I think some feel they will miss the boat and need to buy now.  The trading card market is seeing the same thing.  A well known gold dealer can put 20-25 CAC gold coins up and they are gone in an hour.  It's a feeding frenzy that I'm priced out of.

The CAC price guide does need some updating if prices continue to hold at these levels.

SeatedNut

The market is red hot right now for almost everything cac approved. Nice gold coins are going bonkers. Especially the gold cac stickered coins. The seated dollar market is equally as hot as gold. The only difference is there is not that many SLDs with cac that come up for sale. Generally speaking the higher prices are justified because the price guide is so out of date (even with recent adjustments). That being said the new owner of that 61 $ probably has more money then brains and will be sitting on that coin for quite some time. 

I am also avoiding auctions right now. Lots of people getting buried. I’m on the sidelines for now just waiting and watching.

Hoocackalacky

CAC gold coins have been going nuts since the summer of 2020. I focus on half eagles, so I’ll stick to that segment of the market. I remember seeing the prices from the first Fairmont sale and thinking it had to be collectors battling each other. I was very surprised when I saw record price coins being listed with a 30% markup on dealer websites a month later. Even more surprised when they sold. I can understand some of the record prices on rare issues such as the 55-O half eagle from the first Fairmont sale, but can’t wrap my head around the $3k plus prices being realized on more common issues such as the 1844-O $5 AU55 CAC. That is a common coin and those are MS prices. Doug Winter write a good article about it recently. At first I thought it was confined to Fairmont coins, but I’m seeing huge appreciation across the board on all half eagles (with the exception of the most common late 19th century issues). Don’t get me started on prices for the Greenwood collection that sold via GC during the ANA. 

I’ve bid on several nice XF Classic Head $5’s and am always surprised when they close in excess of $1500. Those coins often traded sub $1k as recently as early 2020. Less appreciated dates like the 1848 $5 in mid AU are now $1k plus coins. Pre pandemic I remember winning a nice CAC AU55 1848 on eBay for a little over $600… To wrap it up, all of my gold purchases in 2021 were from dealers and I had to pay up, though not stupid money. I’ve bid on plenty of auctions and have bid strong in all and have been blown out in all. No thanks. Hopefully prices come down at some point as I and many others are becoming priced out of the market.

Crypto

SeatedNut said:I

The market is red hot right now for almost everything cac approved. Nice gold coins are going bonkers. Especially the gold cac stickered coins. The seated dollar market is equally as hot as gold. The only difference is there is not that many SLDs with cac that come up for sale. Generally speaking the higher prices are justified because the price guide is so out of date (even with recent adjustments). That being said the new owner of that 61 $ probably has more money then brains and will be sitting on that coin for quite some time. 

I am also avoiding auctions right now. Lots of people getting buried. I’m on the sidelines for now just waiting and watching.

Agreed, Auctions are not the place to be when the market is rushing to spend. Dealers and Vest Pockets are, now is a good time to trade in coins you have moved on from for bigger coins that trade infrequently and might not have the transactions to jump into the crazed price escalations. CaC is hot so look for values in non cac if you don’t want it pay full retail. Non-cac NGC in rare but below the price curve escalation point has some bargains that are equal to the coins in many PCGS cac holders. If you buy a coin that has been maximized, expect to pay maximized retail 

just my 3c 

*Brown spots are actually translucent copper shining tone 

TurtleCat

I have overpaid recently on CAC gold dollars. But I’ve slowed that down a lot as it feels a lot like a bubble right not. 

pcgscacgold

TurtleCat said:

I have overpaid recently on CAC gold dollars. But I’ve slowed that down a lot as it feels a lot like a bubble right not. 

I have noticed that as well.  I am trying to get at Ty2 and Ty3 for my gold type set.  These have moved up a lot recently.  I will wait and watch.

BillJones

For me, the list is endless, but this one leads the group by a wide margin. I got "auction fever." A couple of expert dealers really admired this piece, but I paid way too much. In it's defense, it's graded EF-45, which is 5 points too low in my opinion. I am also told that the fully struck reverse is quite unusual. The Philadelphia Mint almost never struck the reverse of a Type II Gold Dollar this well. 

The mintage is 1,811 pieces with about 75 examples known today. 

BustDMs

Coins that you will not have another chance to obtain in the next 5+ years. 

TheCoinHound

The trick is to know when to second guess the price guides, and maybe even the real market. I'm  not talking about outright mistakes in the price guides, or price guides lagging the real market. I'm talking about coins that rarely come to market, and that really could be worth a lot more if people just woke up one day and looked at them differently. For example, it's not crazy to think that one day a perfectly original and well struck XF45 1855-D G$1 might be worth more than a dipped out, weakly struck and rough piece that is ACCURATELY graded 61. Or, for an example closer to my heart, that a Spanish Colonial 2 Escudos with only three pieces known might be a bargain at 2-3% of what a comparably rare US $5 gold piece easily brings today, even though the price guides and auction sales indicate that it should be more like 1%. When you look at coins that way, you don't worry so much about timing the market, and you don't let as many great opportunities pass you by. 

corgilover

TheCoinHound said:

The trick is to know when to second guess the price guides, and maybe even the real market. I'm  not talking about outright mistakes in the price guides, or price guides lagging the real market. I'm talking about coins that rarely come to market, and that really could be worth a lot more if people just woke up one day and looked at them differently. For example, it's not crazy to think that one day a perfectly original and well struck XF45 1855-D G$1 might be worth more than a dipped out, weakly struck and rough piece that is ACCURATELY graded 61. Or, for an example closer to my heart, that a Spanish Colonial 2 Escudos with only three pieces known might be a bargain at 2-3% of what a comparably rare US $5 gold piece easily brings today, even though the price guides and auction sales indicate that it should be more like 1%. When you look at coins that way, you don't worry so much about timing the market, and you don't let as many great opportunities pass you by. 

Great point but it seems that coins which don't deserve a big run-up in prices such as the aforementioned 1844-O half eagle in AU55 are rising at a rate as great--or even greater--than a coin such as @BillJones' EF45 1855-D full date gold dollar which is incredibly nice for the date and grade not to mention incredibly rare as such.

corgilover

Hoocackalacky said:

CAC gold coins have been going nuts since the summer of 2020. I focus on half eagles, so I’ll stick to that segment of the market. I remember seeing the prices from the first Fairmont sale and thinking it had to be collectors battling each other. I was very surprised when I saw record price coins being listed with a 30% markup on dealer websites a month later. Even more surprised when they sold. I can understand some of the record prices on rare issues such as the 55-O half eagle from the first Fairmont sale, but can’t wrap my head around the $3k plus prices being realized on more common issues such as the 1844-O $5 AU55 CAC. That is a common coin and those are MS prices. Doug Winter write a good article about it recently. At first I thought it was confined to Fairmont coins, but I’m seeing huge appreciation across the board on all half eagles (with the exception of the most common late 19th century issues). Don’t get me started on prices for the Greenwood collection that sold via GC during the ANA. 

I’ve bid on several nice XF Classic Head $5’s and am always surprised when they close in excess of $1500. Those coins often traded sub $1k as recently as early 2020. Less appreciated dates like the 1848 $5 in mid AU are now $1k plus coins. Pre pandemic I remember winning a nice CAC AU55 1848 on eBay for a little over $600… To wrap it up, all of my gold purchases in 2021 were from dealers and I had to pay up, though not stupid money. I’ve bid on plenty of auctions and have bid strong in all and have been blown out in all. No thanks. Hopefully prices come down at some point as I and many others are becoming priced out of the market.

Hoocackalacky said:

CAC gold coins have been going nuts since the summer of 2020. I focus on half eagles, so I’ll stick to that segment of the market. I remember seeing the prices from the first Fairmont sale and thinking it had to be collectors battling each other. I was very surprised when I saw record price coins being listed with a 30% markup on dealer websites a month later. Even more surprised when they sold. I can understand some of the record prices on rare issues such as the 55-O half eagle from the first Fairmont sale, but can’t wrap my head around the $3k plus prices being realized on more common issues such as the 1844-O $5 AU55 CAC. That is a common coin and those are MS prices. Doug Winter write a good article about it recently. At first I thought it was confined to Fairmont coins, but I’m seeing huge appreciation across the board on all half eagles (with the exception of the most common late 19th century issues). Don’t get me started on prices for the Greenwood collection that sold via GC during the ANA. 

I’ve bid on several nice XF Classic Head $5’s and am always surprised when they close in excess of $1500. Those coins often traded sub $1k as recently as early 2020. Less appreciated dates like the 1848 $5 in mid AU are now $1k plus coins. Pre pandemic I remember winning a nice CAC AU55 1848 on eBay for a little over $600… To wrap it up, all of my gold purchases in 2021 were from dealers and I had to pay up, though not stupid money. I’ve bid on plenty of auctions and have bid strong in all and have been blown out in all. No thanks. Hopefully prices come down at some point as I and many others are becoming priced out of the market.

Clearly, 1848 half eagles in nice AU were ridiculously great values up to 2020 when you could buy them at $700. Now that the price has doubled, they don't seem cheap anymore but I still think they are good value. Same goes with dates like the 1858, 1859  and 1860 Philly Fives which, as I've pointed out for decades, were  tremendously undervalued at their pre-2020 levels. I didn't think they would double--or even triple--in price so quickly but I still think an 1858 half eagle in nice PCGS/CAC represents good value at under $5k.

Winesteven

As I sometimes do, I’ll take a contrary position to most of the prior posts, although those have focused on GROSSLY overpaying, which I do not do.

Ever since my lovely wife of 46 years passed away suddenly five years ago with no medical warning at age 64, it’s changed my perspective on many things in life. 

I buy mainly four figure coins, and I’m blessed in so many ways, including being able to afford the coins I want. So years ago, out of principal, I would never overpay at all on a coin. Now, if there’s a coin I want in the higher grades I buy for my collection, I’m very willing to “overpay” by 10% - 15% or so. Consignors love me, bidders hate me. Most of the time I end up with coins well below my max hammer bid.

My most recent example is the below 1880 Liberty Seated Quarter, PR67CAM I bought from Heritage this past Thursday. I believe my price paid of $5,280 all in is a fair price, but no bargain. My max bid was higher, but that enabled me to have a high chance of success on getting this coin.

CACfan

"What coins do you overpay for?"

All of them. I am a retailer of undervalued, low mintage issues, so I always need to pay way over sheet in order to buy enough coins to make a market in them. But even if I pay above full retail, I can usually make a profit because the coins are always so underpriced regardless of market conditions.

knovak

Looks like you got a great coin and good deal. The auction already shows on the PCGS app.........and since it's beaned it should bring substantially more if you sold it. Congratulations! BTW, I learned a long time ago if you see something you like you'd better grab it when you can because you may not ever have the opportunity again.

Crypto

Funny part is the coins i overpaid for are often the ones I make the biggest profit on. If you love it there is a good chance someone else will too. Not always but often

EarlyFederalCoinage

I’d like to think none of them.

Gazes

For those who feel like the prices for CAC coins are overvalued now, keep in mind this---prior to the pandemic, I read over and over that CAC coins were trading at a premium that could not possibly last and those coins were overvalued.  For the time being it is clear that those coins were not only not overvalued but clearly undervalued. 

One could argue that coins have been undervalued for a long time.  A $5 gold indian properly graded as ms-65 arguably had its price kept artificially low due to gradeflation.  A bunch of low end or over graded coins got into ms-65 slabs and therefore the price guides kept the value down due to these overgraded "gems".  CAC has identified the solid MS65 $5 indians and the true value has been unleashed.  So maybe they are simply properly valued now.

Like others, I find it hard to buy with the prices of coins I like having risen radically.   However, I am fairly certain the pcgs CAC gold coins I collect will not return to their pre pandemic prices.  Maybe they will flatten out or keep rising.  I'm fairly certain that truely rare coins with CAC approval will always be in demand and prices will reflect that.

ptolemyII

Crypto said:

Funny part is the coins i overpaid for are often the ones I make the biggest profit on. If you love it there is a good chance someone else will too. Not always but often

It doesn't have to be the best, or even a monster. Just, in some way, exceptional enough for that attribute to be deeply desired.

Imagine a white 1919-D 25c AU58FH....
A bright undipped original 1942/1-D 10c AU58FB....
Or an uncleaned AU high R-6 Bust Half variety....
Surely any partially unspoiled 1799 penny....
All-there color, just-miss technical 1939 50c PR67+....
@Winesteven's headlight satin 1851 3cS....

Coins like these would always grab the attention from others on the sell side.

Winesteven

Gazes said:

For those who feel like the prices for CAC coins are overvalued now, keep in mind this---prior to the pandemic, I read over and over that CAC coins were trading at a premium that could not possibly last and those coins were overvalued.  For the time being it is clear that those coins were not only not overvalued but clearly undervalued. 

One could argue that coins have been undervalued for a long time.  A $5 gold indian properly graded as ms-65 arguably had its price kept artificially low due to gradeflation.  A bunch of low end or over graded coins got into ms-65 slabs and therefore the price guides kept the value down due to these overgraded "gems".  CAC has identified the solid MS65 $5 indians and the true value has been unleashed.  So maybe they are simply properly valued now.

Like others, I find it hard to buy with the prices of coins I like having risen radically.   However, I am fairly certain the pcgs CAC gold coins I collect will not return to their pre pandemic prices.  Maybe they will flatten out or keep rising.  I'm fairly certain that truely rare coins with CAC approval will always be in demand and prices will reflect that.

This!

Steve

TurtleCat

It seems that everything I buy lately is overpriced, lol. Which is why I'm buying less and making use of the market to unload a lot of older stuff and less-desired stuff in my collection. Makes it kinda a wash for me.

I still feel like it's in a bubble, though. Just don't know how long.