They will remain at significant premiums. I'd bet JA will have a replacement or something (I have no inside info on his plans). He cares too much to just let CAC die
I expect the premiums will remain largely the same over time. I think the biggest factors that will change the premium will be if they stop accepting submissions or go with a new bean approach/style to recognize new leadership.
I expect the premiums will remain largely the same over time. I think the biggest factors that will change the premium will be if they stop accepting submissions or go with a new bean approach/style to recognize new leadership.
If or when the bean were discontinued, I would expect the premiums to increase.
I also believe that cac will remain in demand and trade at premiums. The only way I see this changing is if the same sticker continues to be used once JA retires. If they come up with a 2nd generation sticker after he retires I believe the green stickers will be looked at like an OGH and trade at a higher premium then the newer sticker type… Anyone think otherwise?
I think it depends on the series and even date. But the coins that trade at large premiums now I feel will explode in value if as the OP states JA retires or sells. The population of CAC coins is very stable. If one assumes no new stickers, a limited supply and collectors always desiring the best----the future value of CAC coins with current small populations is very promising.
It would create a market vacuum that would be filled, the preference would be strong just like OGHs but the coin would still be paramount. Not all OGHs command a premium
As JA has said before, more or less, the beans don’t add value. They unlock it. In other words, the coins aren’t worth more because they have beans. They have beans because they’re worth more. That said, premiums can get unrealistically high or low in the short run. But ultimately, in the long run, the coins are what they are, and the market will sort it out. With or without John or CAC.
The consistency of the current leadership will be difficult but not impossible to replace. If future leadership is not, then the current beaned coins will be much sought after and desired.
I also believe that cac will remain in demand and trade at premiums. The only way I see this changing is if the same sticker continues to be used once JA retires. If they come up with a 2nd generation sticker after he retires I believe the green stickers will be looked at like an OGH and trade at a higher premium then the newer sticker type… Anyone think otherwise?
Yep like rattler, ogh, fatty, they too will become a part of numismatic history.
Well PCGS just sold and submissions have not declined. Great businesses last, not because they currently exist but because they provide a great service.
I think it depends on the series and even date. But the coins that trade at large premiums now I feel will explode in value if as the OP states JA retires or sells. The population of CAC coins is very stable. If one assumes no new stickers, a limited supply and collectors always desiring the best----the future value of CAC coins with current small populations is very promising.
I agree. About three years ago or so in an interview, JA implied that because in his opinion they have seen about 90% of the coins that will be submitted, there could come a time not far from now that they make a business decision to stop accepting submissions, and to rely only on their “bread and butter” - making a market in coins with CAC’s.
If indeed that time ever comes, I believe it’s pretty obvious that today’s pricing differentials between coins with CAC’s, and coins in the same date and grade without CAC’s will grow even larger!
For those that choose not to submit their coins now, but plan on doing so when the time comes to sell (by them or their heirs), if indeed JA’s implication becomes reality, then the line “You snooze, you lose” will then be an expensive reality!
I think it depends on the series and even date. But the coins that trade at large premiums now I feel will explode in value if as the OP states JA retires or sells. The population of CAC coins is very stable. If one assumes no new stickers, a limited supply and collectors always desiring the best----the future value of CAC coins with current small populations is very promising.
I agree. About three years ago or so in an interview, JA implied that because in his opinion they have seen about 90% of the coins that will be submitted, there could come a time not far from now that they make a business decision to stop accepting submissions, and to rely only on their “bread and butter” - making a market in coins with CAC’s.
If indeed that time ever comes, I believe it’s pretty obvious that today’s pricing differentials between coins with CAC’s, and coins in the same date and grade without CAC’s will grow even larger!
For those that choose not to submit their coins now, but plan on doing so when the time comes to sell (by them or their heirs), if indeed JA’s implication becomes reality, then the line “You snooze, you lose” will then be an expensive reality!
If that day ever comes, somebody will set up a new service to sticker coins. And if they do a good job, we could end up with a lot of double-beaned coins.
I think it depends on the series and even date. But the coins that trade at large premiums now I feel will explode in value if as the OP states JA retires or sells. The population of CAC coins is very stable. If one assumes no new stickers, a limited supply and collectors always desiring the best----the future value of CAC coins with current small populations is very promising.
I agree. About three years ago or so in an interview, JA implied that because in his opinion they have seen about 90% of the coins that will be submitted, there could come a time not far from now that they make a business decision to stop accepting submissions, and to rely only on their “bread and butter” - making a market in coins with CAC’s.
If indeed that time ever comes, I believe it’s pretty obvious that today’s pricing differentials between coins with CAC’s, and coins in the same date and grade without CAC’s will grow even larger!
For those that choose not to submit their coins now, but plan on doing so when the time comes to sell (by them or their heirs), if indeed JA’s implication becomes reality, then the line “You snooze, you lose” will then be an expensive reality!
All this may logically come to fruition but at what point is the combo of marketable attributes less about the coin and more about the ‘’jazz hands’’ and is that a good thing for the hobby? And if CAC supply is constricted too much people might just go back to looking for coins the old fashion way.
I get the whales wanting their trophy’s vetted as the downside of not getting a sticker later is significant let alone finding an actual undisclosed issue. For the meat and potatoes of the hobby CAC is merely a Luxury sold and promoted by the add-value resale level of the hobby. For every choice Bust half with a sticker there is also a dozen nice examples without one laying around to buy.
I agree. About three years ago or so in an interview, JA implied that because in his opinion they have seen about 90% of the coins that will be submitted, there could come a time not far from now that they make a business decision to stop accepting submissions, and to rely only on their “bread and butter” - making a market in coins with CAC’s.
If indeed that time ever comes, I believe it’s pretty obvious that today’s pricing differentials between coins with CAC’s, and coins in the same date and grade without CAC’s will grow even larger!
For those that choose not to submit their coins now, but plan on doing so when the time comes to sell (by them or their heirs), if indeed JA’s implication becomes reality, then the line “You snooze, you lose” will then be an expensive reality!
@Crypto said: All this may logically come to fruition but at what point is the combo of marketable attributes less about the coin and more about the ‘’jazz hands’’ and is that a good thing for the hobby? And if CAC supply is constricted too much people might just go back to looking for coins the old fashion way.
I get the whales wanting their trophy’s vetted as the downside of not getting a sticker later is significant let alone finding an actual undisclosed issue. For the meat and potatoes of the hobby CAC is merely a Luxury sold and promoted by the add-value resale level of the hobby. For every choice Bust half with a sticker there is also a dozen nice examples without one laying around to buy.
@Winesteven replies: I agree with some of what you say, but: 1. "The Market" is the boss, whether we like it or not. I FULLY agree it should always be about the coin, but "The Market" says no, and that's why coins with CAC's mostly sell for more money than an equivalent "eye appealing" coin in the same grade. I do NOT see that changing. 2. Regarding the dozen nice examples of Bust halves laying around to buy for every one with a CAC, the question then is "WHY" do those dozen not have CAC's? Perhaps it's because the owners/dealers don't mind leaving money on the table and won't spend the $16, or perhaps the more likely reason is either they are not solid for the grade, or had something done to their surfaces that JA doesn't like, but is OK at the TPG? These issues could be the reason many of us choose to buy coins with CAC's.
But seriously folks..... as many are saying, I think it would be bedlam if beans stopped growing. I consider it prudent to think hard about the future of YOUR coin practices.
Comments
If indeed that time ever comes, I believe it’s pretty obvious that today’s pricing differentials between coins with CAC’s, and coins in the same date and grade without CAC’s will grow even larger!
For those that choose not to submit their coins now, but plan on doing so when the time comes to sell (by them or their heirs), if indeed JA’s implication becomes reality, then the line “You snooze, you lose” will then be an expensive reality!
@Winesteven replies: I agree with some of what you say, but:
1. "The Market" is the boss, whether we like it or not. I FULLY agree it should always be about the coin, but "The Market" says no, and that's why coins with CAC's mostly sell for more money than an equivalent "eye appealing" coin in the same grade. I do NOT see that changing.
2. Regarding the dozen nice examples of Bust halves laying around to buy for every one with a CAC, the question then is "WHY" do those dozen not have CAC's? Perhaps it's because the owners/dealers don't mind leaving money on the table and won't spend the $16, or perhaps the more likely reason is either they are not solid for the grade, or had something done to their surfaces that JA doesn't like, but is OK at the TPG? These issues could be the reason many of us choose to buy coins with CAC's.
Hurry up. Gettem in NOW!
But seriously folks..... as many are saying, I think it would be bedlam if beans stopped growing.
I consider it prudent to think hard about the future of YOUR coin practices.