Edit -- Sorry this should be in a diff Category. I thought it said "Conversation". need my specs
Hi All
Something I've been thinking about and noticing lately...
If you are into older U.S. Coins, the past few years I have noticed that if there is a coin you want/need for your collection or set, it seems you may need to be willing to make a move on it.
Not sure I would call it "being aggressive", but definitely seems you need to know what you want and be willing to make a move.
Any others have any thoughts on this observation?
P.T.
Comments
Up until around 2018/2019, as a collector, I found it easy buying coins in auctions. I was competing mainly against dealers, who were limited in their bids, as they had to make sure when they retailed their coins, they could make a profit. As such, not too tough outbidding dealers. I think my perception is correct that back then, the percentage of bidders in auctions that were collectors was much smaller than the most recent few years.
Now, when I bid in auctions, I’m competing against a much larger percentage of collectors. As such, it’s much tougher to be the high bidder, and that is a portion of the reason recent auction prices have caused a rise in coin market value.
Steve
One could speculate that the Pandemic gave people more time indoors with a need for something to do, which gave a boost to the overall numismatic market.
Whether that is the case or not, the past few years seem marked by a much smaller supply of rare dates and rare conditions.
As a rich but representative example, looking on eBay for an 1806 draped bust large cent, reveals almost none in higher price/conditional rarity. As another example, a search on eBay for 1825 capped bust dime shows 3-4 premium coins (out of the price range of many at $3500+ to $100,000) but very little in the XF or AU slabbed graded zone.
With this thinly capitalized of a market, I would expect to see graded coins such as these examples getting strong bidding at the Auction Houses when examples come up for bidding. I wouldn’t be surprised at price pressure on the public published pricing guidelines.
My theory is that with the sale of TPGs to the money class, investors and others are bidding up coins indiscriminately. Even auction houses themselves. I’m informed that auction houses often place bids on coins in their own auctions. I think these “interests” are banking on continuously rising prices, so they keep bidding. And, they know collectors don’t have much choice. Eventually, collectors will stop. And the market will unravel.
My advice: don’t get caught up in the frenzy. More coins keep entering the market. Be patient.
Steve
Joey
It was a now or never deal.